Predictive Validity

Predictive validity is a measure used in psychological and educational research to determine the extent to which an assessment or test can accurately predict future performance or behavior.


Predictive validity refers to the ability of a test or assessment to forecast a specific criterion measure or outcome, typically in a future time frame. It assesses how well scores from a particular test or assessment can predict an individual’s performance or behavior in a real-world setting.


Predictive validity is crucial in various fields, including education, selection procedures, and clinical assessments. The ability to accurately forecast future outcomes or behaviors allows decision-makers to make informed judgments and decisions based on an individual’s test scores.


Predictive validity is typically evaluated by comparing the test scores of individuals with their later performance on the criteria of interest. This can be done by analyzing the correlations or statistical relationships between the test scores and the criterion measure.


For example, a university might use predictive validity to determine the effectiveness of their admissions test. They would collect data on students’ scores on the test upon admission and then track their academic performance, such as their grade point averages (GPAs), throughout their college years. By examining the correlation between test scores and subsequent GPAs, the university can assess the predictive validity of their admissions test.